Markets and central banks hate uncertainty and that is all that bit of weak policy flip flopping is - hard for the market to price in today what would be previously reasonably unforeseeable to change tomorrow. Further, this cost of goods reprieve (exempting items as per existing trade deal terms instead of removing tariffs to try and save face) is only in place for another month so prepare for more volatility again. That same volatility that has managed to crash every US exchange over the last 6 weeks, creates massive potential mortgage, housing and interest rate issues down the road, likely continues the soft start to the year with unemployment increases (already up in Month 1 and we will know next month when the data starts coming in to reflect the start of the federal jobs purge), pushed the price of goods significantly higher and business confidence lower, whilst also alienating the US’s largest trading and strategic alliance partners in the process, to name just some of the pitfalls of flying by the seat of your pants on demand side politics with an unprepared economy.
This is all econ 101… There is nothing deeper going on than poorly executed strong-arm tactics. A case of trying to do too much too soon in what can only be described as a a bulldozer effected, scattergun approach (eg I would think there are more important current world and domestic issues than attending meetings on a Saudi led Golf tour). Unlike in industry you cannot just do a KZ and throw shit at the wall to see what sticks without there being consequences elsewhere. Trump himself talked about the need to use “a scalpel not a hatchet” - but saying and doing seem to be very different things in politics of all parties over the last decade and none have been as Gung-Ho as the current administration.
Contrast that to European Bourses over the same period… And believe you me there is no real financial reason for these to be trending higher at a time of substantial (in some countries Generational) debt handbrake increases, governmental budget allocation changes and the threat of an expanding European based war mixed with immigration and affordable housing concerns. So why such contrasting outcomes… prior to the inauguration it was a vastly different story…
Fresh yes - inept
In the UK we had something similar recently with Liz Truss’s premiership - but she was ousted after 7 weeks when it became obvious that she had little understanding or care of financial consequences for her actions when her ill thought out policy decisions crashed UK markets and made the average person poorer. A question of dogmatic thinking over pragmatic realities.
Personally, I have remained ambivalent on Trump as a whole as he has the potential to enact world altering triumphs through his self-determination, cult of charisma and stronger positioning of the US on the world stage as a powerful actor and leader instead of just collaborator. Managing to potentially end two large scale conflicts would be history making but outcomes do not always justify the means and so that same potential also runs the other way, where off-beat contributions have already caused a paradigm shift in diplomacy, culture and inequality. And this is where we start talking hope… But if politics has become so blindly partisan in nature, then it isn’t hope that is being held but mental gymnastics to personally rationalise events in a climate of an absense of accountability. In the UK, Brexit has been an abject failure on every recordable measure but people still talk about giving it more time as no body likes to admit they were misled, ill informed or mistaken. But isn’t learned helplessness rather a sad state of affairs - when we are just saying get elected by any means and do/say what you want and we all sit back and just allow it and hope for the best solely as we self identify with a political group despite factual outcomes.
Poor decisions are poor decisions regardless of who makes them - if people can recognise Biden’s ineffective policies and bumbling operations then they should also be able to see it with Trump’s… No need to test fate and sit on twiddling thumbs waiting to see.