This is why I’m saying get on the Penon newsletter to people. The MSRP is going to be $499. They’re going to offer a VIP pricing that I think will be around 25% off ($375). I don’t think they will replicate the 50% off deals they do for Fans 1 and 2. The MSRP price is meant to be competitive with the entry level price point for EST-equipped tribrid sets (the Sound Rhyme and ISN offerings at $450).
The VIP price is going to be a market breaking price (like Fan 2 at 50% off for a high-quality 2 + 2 hybrid). I expect a $350-399 VIP pricing with my bet being $375. Anything under that is a complete blind buy for a 2+2+2 tribrid, the same way $140 was a blind buy for Fan 2.
And just to note: I predicted Penon 10 would fall between Globe and Volt’s pricing with a prediction of $499-599. So I feel pretty confident about this
I would say that’s a huge mistake for their branding. Since I joined the newsletter before Fan 2 came out, every Penon/ISN brand release has gotten a VIP offer, and they even re-released the F1 & F2 offers.
I respect the fact that while they up-price their models, they offer competitive pricing to repeat customers or those locked into following their ecosystem. Not offering that deal undercuts their own marketing.
They have to do something with a VIP deal or it destroys the standard they’ve set and that is what makes their business model work
Even though I agree it would be an unwelcome change to the “norm” they may have established, it wouldn’t be the first time a company changes their own sales strategy for the worse (from a consumer’s perspective).
All we can do is wait and hope that isn’t the case
You are 100% correct that they can change their business model at any time and that’s all well and good.
I do still think it would be a big mistake to choose this moment to end your well-received model and alienate the customers that you have brought in by utilizing and protecting how your Newsletter works the way they have.
But yeah, they could be choosing to burn it all to the ground
Whilst I myself partake in the Penon newsletter codes and selfishly want them to continue - from a purely business perspective their existing take may not be the most efficient.
In general your CPA is far higher for new - not recurring customers. You leverage the inability to accurately get a marketing ROI through the offset of cheaper and more effective marketing to existing clients. With that in mind then undercharging the base leads to them only spending in sales - so undercutting your RR and margin which is how you ideally underpin your fixed cost base. It also messes with your cash flow and if you are looking to attract investment as any business should - well this is a disaster move to have to explain.
By making new customer cost entry at a cost base + premium pricing as a margin maker you are forever shrinking your new applicant pool (hard enough to get new custom when you have a mid 2000s style website like Penon does where their prices are also generally higher and their route to market is direct purchase through their own channels only instead of through a distributed model. DTC business whilst having higher margins also have to have higher marketing costs which Penon doesn’t really do past their monthly email newsletter (low cost) & shilling retainers to Redcarmoose & DSnuts (who knows the cost of that).
Equally you have to account for your RR base to also shrinks as it is not prudent to forecast to stay at 100% (I play mainly in both SaaS and professional service spaces where the RR is far higher than my e-commerce plays - I forecast in the 80%-90% retention range as opposed to 25-30% which is the generally accepted target for e-commerce).
This is obviously compounded by the shitty ethical idea of selling a product at a super inflated margin which they are clearly doing as if you can chop off 50% of the price for your base and still be profitable then that product is not competitively priced from the get-go and will alienate any new buyers who have paid full sticker - again not the best way to retain customers.
This is a fine potential analysis. Everything here is cogent and makes sense. If the assumptions you make about their goals are in line with reality it’s hard to argue against that.
I need to see, in practice, that they’re deciding to change their model (or that they state it publicly before launch, which would be ideal).
I suppose I’ll amend my opinion to: if they end the VIP pricing and the customer base only finds out by the lack of sharing one on release, that would be bad and alienating the current customer base (like me who is expecting it and conditioning my purchase on it). If they tell us now they’re not offering a VIP pricing before launch, that would be far more preferable.
Son of a bitch, I’ve sworn myself not to get anymore single DD iems after I got the Twilight (until the Maka comes out) but looking at the KBEAR Aurora chatter up there I might have to buckle for it. How does it compare to the Kai for you?
Do you mean the Aurora is less energetic in midbass and upper mids or am I just misunderstanding what you mean?
Is there anything you think the Kai has over the Aurora?
Iiiinterestiiing
The Twilight for me feels like it’s missing the thunk I like from the Mele and Kai, so if I buckle and pick up the Aurora just out of curiosity with the double filter mod you talked about.